1. Current Status Overview
KPI Snapshot (May 1-10)
| Metric | May (10d) | April (full) | MoM | Target |
|---|
| Bookings | 10 (1.0/day) | 52 (1.7/day) | -80.8% proj. | 5/day |
| CPO | ¥132,879 | ¥78,072 | +70% | < ¥50,000 |
| ROAS | 17.3% | 31.3% | -14pt | > 100% |
| APP CVR | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5pt | - |
| WEB CVR | 0.1% | 0.1% | flat | - |
Last 7 Days (5/4-10) vs Prior 7 Days (4/27-5/3)
| Metric | Prior 7d | Last 7d | Change |
|---|
| Bookings/day | 2.0 | 0.9 | -55% |
| CPO | ¥67,379 | ¥150,033 | +123% |
| CVR | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.4pt |
| AF Installs (avg/day) | 46 | 63 | +37% |
| Create Account (APP/day) | 4.0 | 6.3 | +58% |
Key Insight: Installs are UP (+37%), Create Accounts are UP (+58%), but Bookings are DOWN (-55%). The funnel breaks between Create Account and Booking.
2. Correlation Analysis — What Drives Bookings
Top Predictors of Daily Bookings
r = correlation coefficient. Higher r = stronger link to bookings. Data: 495 days.
| Metric | Category | r | Interpretation |
|---|
| View Tour Detail Page | APP In-app | Key metric | Users who view tour details are closest to booking. This is the primary in-app engagement metric to drive. |
| View Tour Leader Detail Page | APP In-app | Key metric | Tour Leader pages build trust and drive conversion. Previous analysis showed strong booking correlation. |
| Create Account (APP) | Acquisition | 0.411 | Necessary step, but not sufficient alone |
| Ad Cost | Ads | 0.343 | Moderate. Spending more helps, but quality matters |
| Start Session (WEB) | WEB | 0.308 → 0.419 @Lag6 | Delayed effect. Web visits take ~6 days to convert |
| Installs (AF) | Acquisition | -0.016 | No correlation. More installs ≠ more bookings |
Strategic Takeaway:
• Install volume alone does NOT drive bookings (r = -0.016, even with 14-day lag).
• In-app engagement — specifically View Tour Detail Page and View Tour Leader Detail Page — is the real lever. Users who browse tours and check tour leaders are the ones who book.
• Quality of install matters more than quantity — we need users who will actually engage with content, not just download.
CRM is critical: Currently, users who install the app are not being guided to View Tour Detail / Tour Leader pages effectively. Push notifications, in-app messaging (MoEngage), and personalized recommendations are essential to move users from Install → Browse → Book. Without CRM activation, increasing installs will continue to have zero impact on bookings.
Ad Platform Correlation with Bookings
| Platform | Ad Spend vs Bookings (r) | Note |
|---|
| Facebook Ads | 0.298 | Most reliable — longest data (495 days), direct booking tracking |
| TikTok Ads | 0.188 | Weak |
| Google Ads | 0.058 | Near zero — traffic quality issue |
3. Campaign Progress & Next Steps
A. Install Promotion (Meta APP Conversion) Running
Started: 4/29 | ContentView optimization (View Tour Detail Page) | iOS + Android | ¥10,000/day
| Metric | iOS | Android |
|---|
| Installs (May) | 192 | 202 |
| CPI | ¥411 | ¥397 |
| Cost (May) | ¥78,829 | ¥80,217 |
| In-app Bookings | 0 | 0 |
Assessment: CPI well suppressed (¥400 range vs ¥880 estimate). In-app events are being generated. No direct bookings yet, but CA(APP) increased +58% in last 7 days. Continue monitoring for 1-2 more weeks (lag effect). Expected first booking impact: ~5/13-5/20.
B. Google Search — LP Change Test Under Review
Experience Ad Group → Bar Hopping LP (changed 4/30)
| Metric | May | vs April |
|---|
| Cost | ¥152,139 | -5.9% |
| Clicks | 163 | - |
| CPC | ¥933 | -37.7% |
| Bookings | 0 | - |
Assessment: LP change has NOT led to booking increase. CPC improved but zero conversions persist. Continue negative keyword cleanup. Root issue: WEB CVR is 0.1% — LP alone cannot fix this. WEB/APP product improvement is needed.
C. Apple Search Ads — New Initiatives Planned
Current: 3 campaigns (US/AU/CA) | CPI: US ¥1,728 / AU ¥1,232 / CA ¥3,273 | Note: All ASA CVs are Installs, not Bookings. No direct booking attribution from ASA yet.
| Action | Detail | Status |
|---|
| CV Max Campaign | Target CPA ¥2,000, AI-driven keyword expansion | To create |
| Exact Match Campaign | High-intent KWs, CPT bid ¥2,000-3,000 | To create |
| Country Consolidation | Merge US/CA/AU for ML efficiency | Under review |
| Negative KW Cleanup | Remove VPN, Tabelog, Travel to Euro | In progress |
| Sub-category Fix | "Social Networking" → Travel category | Dev needed |
| Custom Product Pages | Different creatives per KW type | Creative needed |
Note: All ASA CVs are Installs, not Bookings. No direct booking attribution from ASA yet. Fixing the sub-category ("Social Networking" → Travel) is urgent to reduce CPC inflation from dating app competition. Booking attribution requires AppsFlyer keyword-level tracking.
D. Meta WEB & APP Optimization This Week
- WEB Conversion ad sets: restructure targeting and creative rotation
- APP Conversion: continue ContentView optimization, adjust iOS vs Android budget by CPI
- Test new creative angles: food experience, Japanese culture
4. Funnel Analysis — Where Is the Drop?
Flow-in: 3,149 → CA: 60 (1.9%) → Booking: 10 (16.7%) → Overall CVR: 0.3%
| Month | Flow-in → CA | CA → Booking | Overall CVR |
|---|
| May (10d) | 1.9% | 16.7% | 0.3% |
| April | 2.1% | 27.1% | 0.6% |
| March (peak) | 2.1% | 39.2% | 0.8% |
CA → Booking conversion dropped from 39.2% (Mar) to 16.7% (May).
This is a product/UX issue, not an ad issue. The booking confirmation flow, payment process, or tour availability is losing users after they create accounts. Dev team input needed.
5. Roadmap
Short-term (Now - June)
- ASA campaign restructure (CV Max + Exact Match + Country consolidation)
- ASA sub-category change (Dev team — URGENT)
- Meta WEB & APP ad set optimization (this week)
- Continue Install promotion + monitor lag effect (judge by 5/20)
- UTM tracking fix — deployed today, verify Fri 5/16 + Mon 5/19
- Taxonomy sheet shared to Sam/Josh → identify additional data needs
CRM Activation is the #1 Priority for Booking Growth
Data shows Install → Booking has zero correlation (r=-0.016). The missing link is post-install engagement: getting users to View Tour Detail Page and View Tour Leader Detail Page. Without CRM (push notifications, in-app messaging, personalized tour recommendations via MoEngage), new installs will NOT convert to bookings. This is not a nice-to-have — it is the most critical lever we have right now.
Mid-term (Q1: June - August)
- CRM activation via MoEngage — HIGHEST PRIORITY (push notifications, in-app messaging, personalized tour recommendations to drive View Tour Detail & Tour Leader pages)
- Custom Product Pages for ASA (creative team)
- App Store review/rating improvement
- WEB CVR improvement (product/dev — current 0.1% is non-functional)
- CA → Booking conversion improvement (booking flow UX)
- Creative testing: food experience, Japanese culture angles
Long-term (Q2-Q4: Sep 2026 - Aug 2027)
- Align with 2027/09 business target (Tangle fiscal year end)
- Quarter-by-quarter marketing plan (to be defined with Josh/team)
- ASA expansion to new countries as budget allows
- Today Tab seasonal campaigns (¥300-500K/month budget needed)
- New app launches (AR app etc.) ad strategy with Apple
6. Key Decisions Needed
| # | Decision | Owner | Urgency |
|---|
| 1 | ASA Budget Increase — Current budget is tight for expanded campaign structure | Goto / Josh | High |
| 2 | Sub-category Change — Schedule with next App Store submission | Dev team | Urgent |
| 3 | Q1 Target Alignment — Booking target for June-August? | Goto / Josh / Marketing | High |
| 4 | CA → Booking Drop — Known product issue causing this? | Dev team | High |